Remarkable Ideas

Rising Sea Levels NZ

Rising sea levels are part of our future so we may as well get on with figuring out how to cope with the changes in sea level due to global warming.

Rather than deny it is happening, or hoping it is some kind of conspiracy, or arguing whose fault it is, this post is about estimating when the sea will rise, and to what levels.

Recent research about global warming has come up with these disturbing findings:

1. Global warming is likely to accelerate at a much faster pace and cause more environmental damage than previously predicted.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/15/2491942.htm?section=world)

2. Future temperatures will be beyond anything predicted…

In 2001 the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN-IPCC) reported that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

By 2007 the UN-IPCC was predicting temperature rises between 1.1C and 6.4C by 2100… but…one of the authors of the report recently admitted that many factors were not taken into account because of political pressure and the 2007 report seriously underestimated the scale of the problem.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7890988.stm)

3. New studies are warning of a greenhouse gas time-bomb that could amplify global warming – permafrost in Siberia and Canada releasing huge amounts of methane.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/global-warming/feedback-could-amplify-climate-change-peril-20090216-891i.html

4. Widespread devastation of plankton, the start of the food chain in Antarctic waters, by 2030.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24636575-953,00.html

5. Air temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet have increased by about 3.75 degrees Centigrade (7 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1991. Sure it is just one spot on earth, but if the average was a rise of 3.75 degrees every 20 years for all of the planet, then by 2100 temperatures would be 18.75 degrees Centigrade higher than they are now! (Even at a global rate of change of just 9 degrees Centigrade – which is more and more likely, life will cease to exist in many places, and way before 2100.)

6. Then there is the biggie that I find really worrying – the possibility of a massive and catastrophic release of methane from the ocean floor that could wipe out humanity.
http://www.killerinourmidst.com/

My point here – global warming is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Get over it and start thinking about the solutions rather than being part of the problem so we can figure out how to survive.

So how far and how fast do I think sea levels will rise?

Here is the historical and measured rate of sea level change:

1990 – 2mm
2000 – 4mm
2010 – 8mm

Notice how the rate doubles every ten years.

I am going to stick my neck out here and give you my best estimates:

By 2050
Low – 5m
Expected – 14m
High – 60m

By 2100
Low – 14m
Expected – 60m
High – 100m

All of this within my grandson’s lifetime…

By the way, if you think 100m is ridiculous, check this out:

“…if greenhouse gas emissions carried on as they were, CO2 levels would be high enough to melt the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in 100-200 years, making the sea rise about 100m.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10551751

Things to do:

1. See what New Zealand looks like when the sea has risen 14m (expected by 2050), by checking out the Google Flood Map.
http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=-36.9762,175.4791&z=9&m=14)

2. See what New Zealand looks like with a sea level rise of 60m (expected by 2100)
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/sealevel?lat=-40.664&lng=170.706&zoom=6

I have yet to develop a 100m map showing the effect of rising sea levels.

But think about this…

When the the sea level rises to 100m:

- The only current major airport still workable in the North Island is Rotorua.
- The mouth of the Waikato River is at Arapuni
- Tirau is on the sea shore
- Kinleith near Tokoroa is the only major industrial zone in the North Island
- Greatford, about 6km north of Bulls on State Highway 1, is at sea level
- The mouth of the Clutha River is at Roxburgh
- The West Coast Road starts at Aylesbury and ends near Wainihinihi
- Our climate is similar to Northern Australia right now

And if you think we will have problems, check out the rest of the world…

(More to follow on this subject)

Comments appreciated.

Posted in Global Warming | 4 Comments »

Sustainable Job Creation

My personal view is that when considering job creation we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

So what is the worst…

I think we need a cost-effective and sustainable job creation process that benefits primarily New Zealanders.

A cost-effective “top-down, picking winners” strategy is unlikely to be effective. Unfortunately this is the approach that appears to be underway at the moment. (From another perspective, a top down approach may create winners, but at what cost? “Think Big” anyone??)

Proven “economic circuit-breakers” are needed.

So here are two proven parts of the Economic Development puzzle that are sustainable and do work:

“Bottom Up” Regional Economic Development - In 2002 the South Waikato District was identified by the Ministry of Economic Development as one of the worst performing regions in New Zealand. Our objective was to urgently transform the economy of the South Waikato District so that the region could reduce its reliance on Farming and Forestry. The need to change was urgent – in the years 2000-2007 forestry production in the region dropped by about 60%+.

Over 1200 project ideas were generated as a by-product of the community consultation process driving the Regional Economic Development Strategy.

Ongoing and extensive consultation with the community rendered these 1200 ideas into 45 possible projects that could create 3500+ full-time jobs.

All for a total cost of less than $20m including start-up funding. (Elapsed time was about 24 months in the case of the South Waikato, but this process could be shortened to 9 months or less for the equivalent of 2 full-time people per District).

By comparison, the current NZ Government investment of $500m in infrastructure will save 2000-2500 jobs.

At the risk over oversimplifying things, the top down infrastructure approach cost is $200,000 per job. The bottom up costs per job is $5700 – including new business start-up funding. Put another way, the “bottom up” approach we used in the South Waikato is 35 times more cost-effective than the traditional “top-down” way of doing things.

Extrapolating these numbers… by using a bottom up approach it may be possible to create 250,000 jobs, ready to start within 12 months, for a total investment of about $1.4b

This is less than the Government is thinking of spending on broadband.

In fact, by making full use of our existing broadband we would have the funding in place for two major Economic Development initiatives, not just one (see NZ Broadband Strategy for details).

Business Development - I initially promoted the business facilitation processes of Ernesto Sirolli (www.sirolli.com) to help develop and nurture local entrepreneurs in the South Waikato. As part of this strategy a Business Development Centre was set up in Tokoroa.

Operated by a Trust, this expanded into a “one stop shop” with full time staff that offered a professional service in facilitating, planning and marketing assistance for new and existing businesses – for example Business In The Community (BITC) and Enterprise Training.

Identifying the many opportunities in the South Waikato was easy compared to making things happen.

Management and political changes at the Council after I left the job did not help.

Some of the lessons learned from my South Waikato experience:

1. Keep Economic Development out of the control of Local Government. Councils should facilitate the process but not pick winners (directly, via committees, or via selective and/or politicised funding).

2. Fund Bottom-up Economic Development properly. Not just things like an office and trained staff, but micro-loans for start-ups – ideally via a local community bank.

3. Make it easy for volunteers from the community to assume responsibility. Provide admin support and professional project management. Do not pick winners – grow leaders.

4. Do not make local bottom-up Economic Development contingent on funding from national or regional strategies. The mix of objectives is a quick way to kill local initiatives and enthusiasm. The whole process will then grind to a halt.

So there you have it.

My take on what is in front of us.

And some thoughts on how to generate more than enough jobs to keep every New Zealander who wants to work, employed.

Comments welcome.

Posted in Economic Development | No Comments »

NZ Job Summit in Auckland

The NZ Government Job Summit this coming Friday seems to be a step in the right direction when it comes to creating work opportunities for New Zealanders in these changing times – or is it?

Some things to consider:

1. The viewpoints may be too narrow

There has been some criticism of the guest list – and the critics have a point.

The guest list (See: http://www.beehive.govt.nz/feature/summit#attendees) is not all-encompassing.

And the majority of the private sector attendees are in fact representing the capital and assets owned by multinationals – i.e. not New Zealanders.

Indeed, a cynic could say that the “usual suspects” will be meeting to discuss ways of continuing to do what we have always done while all the time expecting different results.

2. The objectives may not be clear

Complicating things even further is the fact that each person at the summit will all have a different view of the scale of the economic problems we are facing.

Much depends on how attendees react to the question “Are we facing a Recession or a Depression?” .

Someone who thinks the financial meltdown will be “over by Christmas” will have a very different perspective to someone who thinks we are looking at longer term problems.

The optimists will be looking at “rearranging the deck chairs”. The pessimists will be thinking that our economic ship has hit an iceberg and is sinking fast.

If the optimists prevail then we could be looking at strategies which are “too little, too late”.

If the pessimists dominate, then there is a very good chance that overseas investors, who own 75-80% of our publicly traded companies AND the NZ banking system, will panic and want to take their money home.

So, in many ways the NZ Job Summit in Auckland is a “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t” situation if the conclusions from the Summit are too different to status quo thinking. Irrespective of who is attending.

3. Can it really avoid being a “talk-fest”?

Prime Minister John Key has said he does not want the Summit to become just another talk-fest. I think everyone supports that idea.

However, unless there is a mechanism in place to manage the process (such as Connecting Communities – see: http://www.remarkable.co.nz/connecting_communities/index.html), then it is difficult to see how 200 or so high-performing people, the majority of who one assumes have strong personalities and are used to being leaders, each with their own perspective on things, can turn into anything else.

I guess the results will speak for themselves.

I hope it goes well for all concerned and the Job Summit is a huge success – despite my concerns.

Posted in Economic Development | No Comments »

NZ Broadband Strategy

There are plans afoot to spend $1.5b on providing high speed broadband to the majority of New Zealanders (about 75% of all homes).

This post discusses the following themes:

-    “Build it and they will come” is a recipe for disaster
-    Why not make the most of what we already have?

By way of introduction, I was pushing the idea of “Broadband for All” in 2002 when I became the Economic Development Manager for the South Waikato District Council.

The District was one of the pioneers in the area of community-owned broadband infrastructure, and we learned many valuable lessons. (See: Connecting Communities for more details – http://www.remarkable.co.nz/connecting_communities/index.html)

Based on these lessons, here are some comments about the current proposal:

a) I have a hard time seeing the economic benefit of spending $1.5b without knowing, at least in broad terms, how the additional bandwidth will be used.

Two related thoughts:

i) During 2006 I spent several months in Seoul, Korea. Korea has a brilliant internet infrastructure. But from what I saw, it seemed to me that it was all just an extension of pay TV catering to a passive audience watching TV and videos.

Unlimited overseas TV channels via the Internet is a waste of $1.5b.

Do we really want to spend $1.5b so everyone can watch “Shortland Street” re-runs 24/7 on their PCs?

ii) The discussion around our broadband infrastructure seems to be a Wellington-driven top-down process dominated by the technology sector. This “build it and they will come” approach is setting us up to fail – after wasting a huge amount of time and money.

During 2002-2003 the following groups emerged from our “Connecting Communities” process which was about how to make the best use of a community-owned broadband infrastructure in the South Waikato.

Each sector had different priorities and timetables. The groups included:

Business Sector Group
Community Organisations
Education – Pre-School and Primary
Education – Secondary
Education – Adult
Golden Oldies
Government
Maori
Pacific People
Rural Businesses / Farming
Social and Health Agencies
Tirau Community
Tokoroa Businesses
Unemployed
Youth

There is NO way that a top-down plan dominated by the tech sector and bureaucrats in Wellington can develop a better plan than one derived via communities.

Bottom line – BEFORE spending any money on bandwidth, determine the needs of every community in NZ at a local level – by using (say) Local Government Authorities.

Then establish and support the equivalent of what we called “Sector Groups” and “Steering Groups” within each local area.

Then aggregate regional demand and timetables to a national level.

And THEN use the tech sector to help each community achieve their goals via this “bottom-up” planned process.

All of this can be done 12-15 months. Total cost, assuming on “training the trainers” and supporting each Council through the process, perhaps $25m.

So, for a tiny fraction of $1.5b as a nation we get to figure out what we actually need.

We involve thousands of committed NZers across all sectors of our society and develop the infrastructure we actually need – and most importantly we have in hand the training and implementation plans required to maximise the return on any investment.

In other words, we figure out what our people want, and then we help them make it happen!

b) Why not make the most of what we already have?

Two related thoughts here as well:

i) The vast majority of web sites in NZ are little more than “brochureware” – they have been set up by graphics designers who have limited skills when it comes to search engine optimisation and/or pay per click promotion. As a result most NZ sites get very little traffic and the majority NZ businesses are not set up to leverage an information-rich “New Economy”.

So, before businesses can leverage the existing infrastructure, they need to move beyond brochureware and understand the web. Spending money on a public awareness campaign would be a good start.

The content for such a public awareness campaign is best summarised by Kevin Kelly. (See “New Rules for the New Economy” – written over 10 years ago http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.09/newrules.html. For a preview of things to come see  http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html)

ii) Using the existing infrastructure we could easily develop 1 million new web sites making $100+ a week. This would contribute $5b to the NZ economy each year – about 15% of our gross current exports. $5b would “balance” our economy. (Note: We actually import NZ$5b more than we export! And we don’t have to worry about shipping costs – electrons are weightless.)

Sounds like a stupid idea at first – but it is possible within 12-18 months.

- Most of these web sites (and/or blogs) would only need to be 5-10 pages selling (say) ebooks and/or monthly memberships.
- Pretty much anyone passionate about a subject can create a US$20 e-book with about 8 hours of effort. And, blogs selling 3rd party products would take only an hour or two each week to maintain.
- Money-making sites can be set up quickly using templates. One per household is possible – everyone has their own passions.
- Niche marketing is the way to go for most NZers – for a background on marketing to niches see “The Long Tail” http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html).

To kick off this idea… instead of spending $1.5b on fibre, what if each NZ household was able to get a free domain for 12 months plus access to free templates and online training that helped them to develop web sites that sell.

Total cost: NZ$100m
Elapsed time: 12-18 months
Additional Infrastructure ex the NZ Government: $zero
Renewed hope as NZers embrace the web: Priceless

Comments please!

Posted in Broadband | 1 Comment »

TV show CSI popularized forensics. How accurate is that show compared to real life forensics work?

Posted in Film and TV | 2 Comments »

How does Emotional Intelligence develops?

Posted in Emotional Intelligence | No Comments »

Why is film production and publicity so important to the Rhode Island government?

Posted in Film and TV | 1 Comment »

How old can camera film get before it won’t develop anymore?

Posted in Film and TV | 1 Comment »

How would I go about finding an internship in Real Estate Appraisal or Community Development?

Posted in Community Development | 4 Comments »

How much longer are the presidential debates on TV going for?

Posted in Film and TV | 4 Comments »