Some Effects on NZ of the Sea Level Rising 14m
February 27th, 2009 | by noel |Recent scientific research makes it plain that ocean levels are rising and that they will continue to rise at an ever-increasing rate.
Some estimates suggest that that we are looking at a 100m rise within 100-200 years.
But this post is not about a 100m rise. It deals with a rise of just 14m.
Personally I think there is less than a 50% chance of the sea level rising 14m by 2050, but I am certain that the sea level will rise at least 14m by 2100. (For reasons why, see Rising Sea Levels.)
As you will read below, a 14m rise in sea levels is catastrophic – even without considering related issues like ocean acidification due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide.
(Click on each highlighted place name to see what is under water after a sea level rise of 14m).
NORTH ISLAND
Kaitaia-Northland – Kaitaia is the shoreline. Main road to the Far North is under water. It is quite possible that the Far North becomes an island.
Whangarei-Dargaville – Dargaville – under water. Most of downtown Whangarei and Port Whangarei, under water. Marsden Point Refinery, under water. Highway 14, under water.
Helensville-Omaha – Helensville, under water. Omaha under water. Much of Orewa under water. SH1 and SH16 under water in places.
Auckland-South Auckland – North Western Motorway, under water. Approaches to Auckland Harbour Bridge, under water. North Western Motorway, under water. Ports of Auckland, under water. Southern Motorway, under water in several places. Otahuhu, under water. South Western Motorway, under water. Auckland Airport, under water. Clevedon, under water. Glenbrook Steel Mill, under water.
Waikato-Thames – SH1 under water in many places. Huntly is the new Waikato shoreline . Thames, under water. Paeroa under water. SH26 and SH27 both under water in several places. Te Aroha is the new Thames Valley shoreline.
Tauranga-Mount Maunganui – Downtown Tauranga, under water. Ports of Tauranga, under water. Mt Maunganui, under water. Tauranga Airport, under water. Papamoa, under water. Te Puke, under water.
Whakatane-Opotiki – Matata, under water. Whakatane, under water. Edgecumbe, under water. Opotiki, under water.
Gisborne – Gisborne, under water.
Wairoa-Mahia – Wairoa, under water. Mahia Peninsula becomes an island.
Napier-Hastings – Napier, under water. Hastings, under water.
Wairarapa – Lake Wairarapa becomes a bay. Beach is at Martinborough.
Wellington-Lower Hutt – Downtown Wellington, under water. Te Papa under water. Wellington Port, under water. Wellington Airport, under water. SH1 out of Wellington, under water. Lower Hutt, under water. Beach is at Avalon.
Raumati-Foxton – Raumati/Waikanae, under water. Much of SH1 north, under water. Levin is shoreline. Foxton, under water. Shannon, under water.
Palmerston North-Wanganui – All main roads to the est of the Tararuas, under water. Beach is at Palmerston North. Downtown Wanganui, under water.
SOUTH ISLAND
Blenheim – Blenheim, under water. SH1, under water.
Nelson-Motueka – Most of Nelson, under water. Motueka, under water.
Takaka-Golden Bay – Takaka, under water. SH60, under water in several places.
Karamea – Karamea, under water.
Westport – Westport, under water. SH67, under water.
Greymouth – Greymouth, under water. SH6 and SH7, both under water in several places.
Hokitika – Hokitika, under water. SH6 underwater.
Invercargill – Invercargill, under water. Bluff, under water. Bluff Smelter, under water.
Balclutha – Balclutha, under water.
Taieri Plains – Taieri Plains, under water. Dunedin Airport, under water.
Dunedin – Downtown Dunedin and Dunedin South, under water. Otago Peninsula becomes an island. Port Chalmers, under water.
Oamaru – Northern Oamaru, under water. SH1 under water.
Timaru – Downtown Timaru, under water. SH1 (north and south), under water.
Christchurch – Lake Ellesmere becomes a bay. Christchurch City, under water. Kaiapoi, under water. Banks Peninisula becomes an island.
Kaikoura – Downtown Kaikoura, under water. SH1 (north and south), under water.
Where to from here?
This all sounds like a hell of a mess – and it is.
There is little, if anything we can do to prevent rising sea levels. And it is likely that the effects of global warming will last for several hundred years – irrespective of how quickly we humans reduce our carbon footprint.
Notwithstanding this dismal outlook we have a better than average chance of surviving, but we need to start acting now and assume that rising sea levels are a certainty.
The only question is how fast the oceans will rise.
So, our policies and coping strategies must assume the worst, while we hope for the best.
Bottom line:
The NZ Government should only invest in infrastructure that is 100m (or higher) above sea level. (This may be impractical in the short term, but it is a starting point for long term policy).
More on planning for our long term survival in another post.
Comments welcome.
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One Response to “Some Effects on NZ of the Sea Level Rising 14m”
By john Fairburn on Jul 30, 2010 | Reply
There is no rising of the sea at least not in the last 60 years to date. Scientists obviously don’t spend much time on the shore compared with commercial fishermen. A mark was engraved on a rock more than 50 years ago on a high spring tide and the water seldom reaches it these days proving the reverse of present day scientific belief.